Every few years, the world is reminded of something it prefers to forget.

That for all the talk of rules, institutions, and norms, Power Still Matters.

Recent events around Venezuela, regardless of how one interprets motives, have reopened an uncomfortable conversation. Not about one country or one leader, but about how global power operates when strategic resources, energy security, and geopolitical interests collide.

For countries that are not great powers, this matters far more than headlines suggest.

The Global Reality: Rules Are Strongest When Power Is Balanced

At a global level, the lesson is not new, but it is often ignored.

International law, trade norms, and diplomatic processes work best when power is evenly distributed. When power is asymmetric, enforcement becomes selective, interpretations become flexible, and outcomes become transactional.

Energy, in particular, remains one of the most powerful geopolitical tools:

• Sanctions are Applied or Lifted,
• Supply is Restricted or Revived,
• Leaders are Isolated or Re-Engaged,
• Markets move on Signals long before Barrels Flow.

This is not a Moral Judgment. It is a Structural Observation.

The world still operates on Interests First, Values Second.

For smaller states, this reality is not optional to understand. It is existential.

Africa’s Position: Strategic Importance Without Strategic Control

Africa sits at the intersection of nearly every major global interest:

• Energy,
• Critical Minerals,
• Shipping Routes,
• Ports,
• Food Security, and…
• Demographics.

And yet, Africa rarely controls the rules governing those interests.

This creates a dangerous imbalance:

• Africa is Strategically Important, but…
• Structurally Vulnerable.

Most African economies remain Price Takers, not price setters.
They react to global decisions rather than shape them.

When supply increases elsewhere, African producers absorb the shock.
When sanctions tighten, African banks, insurers, and shippers feel the pressure.
When capital reallocates, frontier projects are the first delayed.

This is why global energy shifts, even those far away, ripple through African economies almost immediately.

The Hidden Risk: Dependency Disguised as Opportunity

Africa has often framed resource discoveries as salvation.

Oil will fix the Budget.
Gas will fund Development.
Minerals will unlock Growth.

Sometimes that happens. Often, it doesn’t.

Why?

Because Resources Do Not reduce Vulnerability by themselves.
They can increase it.

Without strong Governance, Capability, and Optionality, Resources attract:

• Pressure,
• Interference,
• Rent-Seeking, and…
• Strategic Attention that outpaces Institutional Maturity.

The danger is not Exploitation Alone.
The danger is Being Rushed into Decisions that Cannot be Undone.

Namibia’s Moment: Opportunity Meets Reality

Namibia now finds itself at a critical inflection point.

As a new frontier in Oil & Gas, Namibia has something rare:

• Geological Promise,
• Political Stability,
• Relative Institutional Credibility, and…
• Strategic Geography.

But frontier status cuts both ways.

Frontier projects are the first to suffer when:

• Prices Soften,
• Capital becomes Selective,
• Risk Premiums Increase, or
• Alternative Supply re-enters the market.

Signals of large-scale supply revival elsewhere, whether Venezuela or otherwise, don’t need to materialise fully to matter. Signals Alone Move Capital.

For Namibia, this means One Thing:
the Margin for Error is very Small.

The Real Risk for Namibia Is Not Oil Prices

Oil price volatility is Obvious. It is also Manageable.

The deeper RISK lies elsewhere:

• Rushed Governance Decisions,
• Weak Stabilization Clauses,
• Opaque Contracting,
• Unrealistic Local Content Promises,
• Underinvestment in National Capability, and…
• Institutions that look good on paper but fail under pressure.

This is how Resource Curses Begin.
Not with Corruption Scandals, but with Shortcuts Taken Too Early.

Leadership, Not Luck, Will Decide the Outcome

Namibia’s Success WILL Not Be determined by Geology Alone.

It WILL be determined by Leadership Choices:

• How Predictable and Transparent Approvals are,
• How Disciplined Fiscal Assumptions Remain,
• How Seriously Capability Development is Taken,
• How Balanced Partnerships are Managed, and…
• How much Optionality Namibia Preserves.

Optionality is Power for small states.

Talking to Everyone.
Committing to no one Exclusively.
Maintaining Leverage Quietly.
Strengthening Institutions without Fanfare.

This is not Ideological Alignment. It is Strategic Maturity.

A Quiet but Crucial Shift in Thinking

For Namibia and Africa more broadly the Lesson is NOT to Fear Global Power.

It is to Design Around it.

That Means:

• Building Institutions that are Hard to Corrupt and Easy to Trust,
• Investing in Technical, Regulatory, and Operational Capability,
• Treating Governance as Infrastructure, and…
• Planning for Volatility rather than Hoping for Stability.

Countries that Survive Global Shocks are NOT the Loudest.
They are the Most Prepared.

The Reflection We Should Sit With

As Global Energy Politics grow more Transactional, African leaders Face a Choice:

• Will Resource Discoveries become Leverage or Exposure?
• Will Capital inflows Build Capability or Dependency?
• Will Leadership Be Anticipatory — or Reactive?

The World has NOT become Fairer. It has become Faster.

In that world, Clarity, Discipline, and Capability are the ONLY Real Protection.

For Namibia, the Opportunity is Real.
So is the Risk.

What matters now is not Excitement but Execution!!!

Please note:

I don’t think for one second that my account is a definitive account.
I offer it no more than an opening round in a conversation that I hope.

End