If the 1^st lesson of Global Politics is that Power Still Matters, the 2^nd is more uncomfortable:

Power Rarely Announces itself as Coercion.
More often, it arrives Dressed as Opportunity.

• Loans.
• Infrastructure.
• Technical Assistance.
• Strategic Partnerships.
• Development Financing.

Each, on its own, appears reasonable. Necessary, even. Together, they can quietly reshape a country’s future long before citizens realise what has been conceded.

This is NOT Speculation. It’s a Pattern.

The Mechanics of Influence Are Subtle by Design

Modern Power rarely operates through force alone. It works through Dependency.

Large-Scale Development projects are proposed to countries at moments of Optimism:

• After a Resource Discovery
• During Fiscal Pressure
• When Institutions are still Maturing
• When Speed Feels Essential

Financing is Structured around Ambitious Growth Forecasts. Debt is Justified by Projected Revenues. Risk is Modelled Optimistically. Capacity Constraints are Overlooked or Deferred.

What matters is not whether intentions are Good or Bad.
What matters is Who Carries the Downside When Projections Fail.

Almost Always, it is the Host Country.

Debt Is Not the Problem. Asymmetry Is.

Debt itself is not Immoral, nor inherently Dangerous. Every Modern Economy uses Leverage.

The Danger Emerges when:

• Repayment depends on volatile commodity prices
• Revenues are denominated in foreign currencies
• Contracts restrict policy flexibility
• Arbitration is external and…
• Strategic assets become implicit collateral

At that point, Debt stops being a Financial Instrument and becomes a Political One.

Countries do not usually Lose Sovereignty in Dramatic Moments.
They lose it Incrementally, through Obligations that Narrow their Choices.

• Votes become Negotiable.
• Policies become Constrained.
• “Allies” become difficult to Disappoint.

Africa’s Repeating Vulnerability

We all know that Africa has lived this cycle before.

• Resource discoveries spark hope.
• Capital Rushes in.
• Infrastructure Expands.
• Debt Accumulates Quietly.

When Conditions Change, Prices Soften, Capital Tightens, Geopolitics Shifts, Leverage reveals itself.

• Projects Stall.
• Refinancing becomes Conditional.
• Pressure appears, NOT as Threats, but as “Expectations”.

The tragedy is not Exploitation Alone.
It is Premature Commitment.

YES, I know, Namibia’s Moment Is Different — But Only If It Chooses to Be

Namibia today sits at a rare intersection:

• New Oil & Gas Potential
• Institutional Credibility
• Political Stability and…
• Global Demand for Alternative Supply

This makes Namibia Attractive. It also makes it Exposed.

The greatest risk is not being Exploited.
The greatest risk is being Rushed.

Rushed into:

• Governance Shortcuts
• Inflexible Fiscal Terms
• Optimistic Revenue Assumptions
• Weak Stabilisation Clauses and…
• Development Models that Outpace National Capacity

This is how leverage is created, not through malice, but through imbalance.

The Quiet Warning History Keeps Offering

When countries are told:

• “This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity”
• “Capital will go elsewhere if you hesitate”
• “You must move quickly to stay competitive”

Those are not Neutral Statements.

Speed benefits capital far more than Institutions.
Complexity benefits negotiators more than Regulators.
Urgency benefits those who already understand the System.

History shows that countries that pause, structure, and sequence tend to retain control, even if they grow more slowly at first.

What Strategic Maturity Actually Looks Like

Strategic maturity is NOT Confrontation.
It is NOT Ideology.
It is NOT Rejecting Partnerships.

It is:

• Designing Contracts that assume Volatility, not Stability
• Investing in Regulatory, Legal, and Technical Depth before Scale
• Preserving Policy Optionality
• Diversifying Partnerships Quietly and…
• Treating Governance as Core Infrastructure, NOT Paperwork

Small states do not win by outspending great powers.
They win by outlasting pressure.

The Question That Matters Most

The question facing Namibia and much of Africa, is not whether development will come.

It Definitely Will.

The Real Question is This:

• Will Development Expand Choice, or Quietly Narrow it?

Because once leverage is embedded in contracts, financing structures, and dependencies, reversing it is far harder than preventing it.

Power Still Matters.
But Foresight Matters More.

Please note:
I don’t think for one second that my account is a definitive account.
I offer it no more than an opening round in a conversation that I hope

End